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Sunday, May 07, 2006

Monday Morning Quarterbacking

- Looking back at the pre-race expectations for how the Derby would be run versus what actually happened, it seems like a mixed bag. The pace was fast, but not the fastest. There was uncontrollable speed, but it was Keyed Entry rather than Sinister Minister or Sharp Humor. The performance by the latter was perhaps the strangest of the race; Mark Guidry tried to rate just behind the lead.....But he said Sharp Humor fought him and tried to run full speed, which "just took away our chances." [Louisville Courier-Journal] Just a few days ago Romans was asking anyone who’d listen why he would possibly change the horse’s style at this time? Yet, that’s exactly what they tried to do.

But that really wasn’t a big factor; those horses all finished in the back of the pack anyway. The main thing that was supposed to happen but didn’t was the contentious second tier of pressers and not-fast-enough speed horses battling each other into submission too close to the hot pace. Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sweetnorthernsaint were all unable to stay close enough to be a factor at anytime other than the latter’s brief foray up the rail. This left Barbaro with little company other than Showing Up as he tracked the lead. With all the talk about how he would be facing a new experience with the big field and the anticipated pressure, he basically ran the same exact race that he has in each of his wins. One factor that I ignored to my detriment in my handicapping was the way he was able to establish position so effortlessly in the Florida Derby, despite breaking from the dreaded ten post. That’s proven to be almost an impossible task. Once Barbaro drew the favorable eight post for the Derby, it figures in hindsight that with the long run to the stretch, and with the other pressers drawn to the outside, he would likely have a strategic advantage going into the turn.

As far as the pace collapsing, it did, kind of. Other than Barbaro, anyway. Steppenwolfer and Jazil were able to mount their rallies, as did Brother Derek from much farther back than he’s ever been before. If you watch the stretch run and just focus on the horses in the second half of the field, it’s not a pretty picture. In fact, that’s what the entire field other than Giacomo looked like last year, when the final quarter was run in nearly 27 seconds; big difference between that and 24.34! Runner-up Bluegrass Cat benefited from a flawless, ground-saving ride by Ramon Dominguez to get the place spot, and the rider said "I couldn't get a better trip than I did today." [Delaware Online]

Here’s a couple of excuses from the west coast contingent, which didn’t fare that well this year – after Brother Derek’s 4th, the best finisher was Point Determined (9th).

"After three-eighths, he started moving nicely behind (Barbaro)," said Rafael Bejarano, rider of Point Determined (ninth). "But after he switched leads, he got tired."

A.P. Warrior jockey Corey Nakatani, who finished 18th, said his horse "wasn't handling the track. He just didn't fire today." [Courier-Journal]
Even though he went off at higher odds than Point Determined or Bob and John, I’d say that AP Warrior was perhaps the biggest disappointment in terms of expectations vs. result, with Point Determined not far behind.

Mike Trombetta claims that Sweetnorthernsaint was stuck on a dead rail. "We knew it, thought about it but still wound up there in some way. ....My horse looked like he came back good and I would like nothing more than to take another crack in two weeks.” [Washington Post] As his horse gets ready to enter the gate for the Preakness, all eyes will be on the tote board to see if he gets slammed late again. Tom Hammond picked up on it right away on NBC. I had the odds on my computer screen, and thought maybe Hammond was mistaken; with all the money in the pool, how was that possible? But sure enough, SNS and Barbaro switched places at 5 and 6 to 1. And it’s not like SNS just slipped in; he was slammed all the way down to 5.50 to 1! That was a prodigious punch.

Bloodhorse.com has all the losers’ stories here.

6 Comments:

Anonymous said...

You know the race I really like from year to year at Pimlico is the Pimlico Special. Run at the same distance as the Preakness, its for four year olds and up, Grade I, and always attracts some very popular, what we used to call "handicap" horses. I was hoping I would see one of my favs Flower Alley in it, but without a prep I doubt he will run. Still it will have some big names. The entry box closes today. That race could produce a price. Nick

Anonymous said...

Watch out for Bernadini, awesome in his last.

Anonymous said...

All the jocks on the main contenders were completely fooled by the pre-race hype regarding the predicted lightning pace. They all took back off a reasonable 46 half mile. Only Prado, even after stumbling, had the sense to stick to his horses game plan. And please can the connections stop whining about a wide trip every year after selecting an outside post? What did they expect when they pass on posts 1 and 3 for 18? Then fail to use their charges speed to get postions. Terrible ride by Solis.

Anonymous said...

You think 46 is a reasonable half for 3 Year Olds going a mile and a quarter for the first time in their life? And anyone who believed that Brother Derek had the speed to make the pace from the 18 hole hasnt been paying attention, he was hung out to dry in the BC juvenile because he didnt have enough early foot to even threaten the leaders. Solis did all he could with a horse who wasnt going to get his way for a change.

Anonymous said...

...Alan mentioned the final quarter of 24.34...that's the first thing i noticed when i looked at the chart, and i think there's gotta be a typo or a timer malfunction or something...look at the fractions of the race...

22.63 46.07 110.83 137.02 201.36

...how did they hit the mile in 137.02 after going six furlongs in 110.83?...that seems WAY too slow...i would expect 135 and change, 136 at the absolute slowest...it's even more far-fetched if you consider that the penultimate quarter was run in 26.19, then they SPED UP to 24.34 in the final quarter...NO WAY that happened...not even Secretariat can speed up during the final quarter of a 10-furlong race, let alone shave more than a second off the previous quarter...the final time looks legitimate, but i'd guess the mile time is off by at least a second, probably more...

Anonymous said...

Yes, I have been paying attentions. I believe 46 is reasonable when compared to pre-race published expectations of 44 and change. 46 has been exceeded quite a few times in the past. I did not imply Bro. D should have "made the pace", just that he should have been closer to it, and clearly if he could have and has run faster than his 47.3 Derby half (see 45.4 in Breeders Cup Juvenile). If he can not run 46 he should not be in a grade one.

Solis should have used his horse earlier and been glued to Barbaro's hip. Bad ride, and bad job by the connections selecting post 18. Expect him to be a serious threat in the Preakness.