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Friday, May 19, 2006

Friday Morning Notes - May 19

- Racketeer (Awesome Again) was seemingly on the Derby trail after his good 4th in the San Felipe to AP Warrior, Point Determined, and Bob and John.... (Gee, I guess maybe the California crew isn’t that great this year, though Brother Derek will have a chance to change that on Saturday.) A distant sixth in the Illinois Derby ended any Derby hopes, if owner Frank Stronach ever had any intention of supplementing him.

At Belmont on Thursday, he made his turf debut for Frankel and was bet down to 8-5 favoritism. Awesome Again is a 12% turf sire according to the Form, but Racketeer has a fairly low Tomlinson of 258, and nothing in the immediately family jumps out and says ‘turf.’ Again, and even if he had a high Tomlinson and good grass breeding, this is one of the biggest overbet situations one can find at the track, when a horse that has shown some class on the dirt tries the grass. I’m red-boarding here, but winner Spider Power (Royal Applause) looks like a nice price at $15.80, for the sharp Kiaran McLaughlin.

Silvestris (Forest Wildcat) returned to form in the feature. She had won the Ruthless early this year, but she pushed the bridgejumpers over the rail when she was 4th in the Dearly Precious at 1-2. I’m sure they were all thrilled to see her win this one by four lengths at 3-2.

If there ever was a daily double of worst named race winners, it was in the 4th and 5th races. New York-bred Gonzo Bonzo Beans (Prospect Bay) shipped in from Pimlico and beat four horses, including the inexplicable 4-5 favorite Abbyroar. Nice ship-in for trainer Timothy Salzman. There are no spots in Maryland in which to face four NY-breds for a $41,000 purse, that’s for sure. And the 5th was taken by Ohbeegeewhyen (Doc’s Leader). This horse ran here last May in her first race since the previous November and just missed at 6-1. Now, here she was again in her first race since last November, but was allowed to go off at 7-2 behind 6-5 favorite Deed. The latter had also last raced in November, and had shown no similar penchant for running well fresh. However, her trainer Christophe Clement does, while the winner’s trainer Gary Sciacca has struggled of late, and that probably helped to steer the bettors to the wrong horse.

And I had a winner today, it’s true. The ninth was a wide-open looking turf race, and I used Spartan Valor ($20.60) on top strictly as a price play. I won’t complain too much that the 7-5 favorite got second by a nose and that the exacta returned just $88. Or that I was gonna bet the triple, but lack of confidence held me back, and I woulda had it for $283.50. No, I’m not complaining. Too much. Nice just to get back on the board. And besides, how often do you see your selection be 8th after three quarters in 1:15 2/5, but first under the wire? He’s another offspring of More Than Ready who’s just loving the grass.

And oh yeah, Barclay Tagg was oh-for-two, including a last place finish with 8-5 Megatrend in the 3rd.

5 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Preakness Matchups

Brother Derek +190
Barbaro -220

Sweetnorthernsaint +270
Barbaro -340

Brother Derek -190
Sweetnorthernsaint +160

Like Now -120
Greeley's Legacy EV

Like Now -110
Bernardini -110

Platinum Couple +140
Diabolical -160

Hemingway's Key +170
Greeley's Legacy -200

Hemingway's Key +120
Diabolical -140

Greeley's Legacy +120
Bernardini -140

Patrick J Patten said...

West Virginia always plays the spoiler card when you least expect him, and i see him being 3rd choice maybe, so it's a perfect sport for him. The long shot of the day I think is in the 4th Me Darlin Duke. ML is 20-1

Alan Mann said...

Pletcher could have another nice day today. Besides West Virginia (and Harlington) in the Special, he sends Pool Land in the 10th, and G City Gal in the 8th.

Anonymous said...

I am going to try a Special-Preakness DD part wheel with Harlington (who is being somewhate overlooked in the Special) with both BD and Bernardini. If I am alive, can root for Barbaro yet still be alive for a big score should he falter.

I differ with some that say SNS's bad trip is being overlooked, I think it is being overstated. While he did have a tough first quarter, from that point on he had a fairly nice trip, made up ground easily on rail in backstretch, saved all the ground on the turn and was in position to make a big run turning for home. To me it appeared he just failed to get the trip, just running out of gas in the stretch. It's never mentioned but his pedigree is very questionable at the distance. He is my "bet against" in here, hoping the late money comes pouring in again.

Was the source wagering outlet of the late money ever disclosed?

Anonymous said...

With regard to the late money on SNS, Trombetta's comment was "it wasnt me". But thats not the first time his odds plunged inside a minute to post. In the Illinois the same thing happened, he must have an owner's entourage that bets with both hands late.