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Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Early Pletcher Double

- Interesting maiden special turf race in the first at Belmont on Thursday. Morning line favorite Brantley (3-1) was bet down to favoritism in her debut on May 7, and I posted about the race here. She had to try and circle the field coming into the stretch and was a good four wide, but continued on gamely for third behind the impressive winner Beautiful Danielle, and Judith Basin, who is also in the field. However, the latter moves from the two hole out to post nine, while Brantley starts for the second time from the eight post. Brantley is by the turf champ Theatrical, out of the graded stakes winning mare Biogio’s Rose (Polish Numbers).

Eden’s Causeway (Giant’s Causeway) has been a big money burner, going down at 4-1 and 3-2 twice. The half-brother to Paradise Creek and Wild Event will likely get bet down again, and looks like a bet-against, at least in the win pool.

And it could be a short-priced Pletcher double with Audacious Chloe, the 3-5 morning line favorite against just four other two-year olds. You may recall that she looked home free in her debut at 3-5 at Keeneland, but succumbed late to 24-1 Pro Pink. The latter subsequently ran second against the boys just eight days later in the G3 Kentucky Breeders Cup at Churchill, this time at 23-1.

Stanley Hough, 19% with first-time two-year olds over the last five years, sends out his first one of the year in Velvet Charm. She’s by Montbrook, out of an On To Glory mare; she’s a half to the Florida stakes winner Royal Lad.

8 Comments:

Kashatreya said...

This is actually a very interesting heat, and leave it to the genius patrole at NYRA to make it the first race. Wasn't Biogio's Rose's primary success on the grass? I agree that Brantley probably should be used, but would expect Eden's Causeway to run a lot better today, what with Prado taking the place of Lezcano. I also like In Return a bit, and he may be a fair price (6-1?). Audacious Chloe may have to fall down to lose on the back half of the double; spread in the first seems like the way to go.

Anonymous said...

Hough's Velvet Charm deserves respect in the 2nd. 460k is a lot to pay for a daughter of Montbrook and trainer is known for having them ready.

Outside posts are trouble at 9f on the turf so having hard time liking Brantley or Judith Basin, would not be surprised to see a big upset from an inside post in the first (maybe Frankel's Winesong (IRE)?).

Leading toward part wheeling Winesong and likely Fave Eden's Causeway with Velvet Charm, 3-6/5 DD.

Will decide when I see the board.

alan said...

First of all, the first race is for fillies; sorry, it was a late night post. Yeah, I like In Return a bit too, but I looked at the Formulator stats on Goldberg wheeling them back in less than two weeks and they're not encouraging. That could be 'too much information' though.

As for Winesong, she's definitely worth a closer look. She had a bad start in her SA debut at 9-1. She's by Giant's Causeway, is a half to Seazun, a G1 winner in the UK, and has tons of Euro stakes winners in her female family.

Anonymous said...

Electric Sky (#4) may also be worth another look in the first, taking early money in W and Ex pool, blinkers on for Penna.

alan said...

Stretch was a bit too long for Brantley... Eden's Causeway is certainly bred to be a good one.

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