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Saturday, May 06, 2006

The Pick 3 Hedge

- There’s a $500,000 guarantee on the Pick 3 that culminates in the Derby. The first leg looks like a single to me, so if I can narrow down my horses in the second leg, which is the Turf Classic, it’s a fairly cheap way to not only hedge against the Derby scenarios that you're not going to bet on but fear the most, but be in line for a nice payoff as well. For example, I won’t shudder upon the sight of Jazil passing horses in the stretch faster than gas prices passed $3 if I have a buck on him in that Pick 3. My regular readers know that I've been posting about this horse and his fabulous pedigree since his first win last December. I soured on him after the Fountain of Youth, when he was stone cold dead on the board and then on the track as well. His rally in the Wood remains a question mark, but I'll have at least a win saver on him in any case.

The other one giving me the chills is Sinister Minister. I was a little shaken by some quotes I read from Sharp Humor’s trainer Dale Romans on Friday.

"The key is that he is relaxed....If he is relaxed up close, he can win. If he gets too aggressive, we may be in trouble." [Bloodhorse]
Huh? RELAX? What happened to "I'm going!?" I thought he'd said:
”Sharp Humor's never run from off the pace. I don't see the need to change his style in the biggest race of his life. He just has to be faster than everyone else and keep going." [Washington Post]
He can't relax, he's GOT to go for the lead, we're all counting on that! Is he allowed to change that now? Well, there’s always Keyed Entry; I doubt that Valenzuela is going to let anyone get away uncontested even if he was planning to try and rate.

Anyway, about that Pick 3, the 8th is a Grade 1, the Humana Distaff at seven furlongs for fillies and mares, and Baffert has Behaving Badly (Pioneering), the 2-1 morning line favorite. She’s won four in a row by daylight, easily smashing the 100 Beyer mark each time. She simply looks like the fastest mare in the field hands down. The question about her, especially in the wake of Balance’s stunning flameout in the Oaks, is whether she can handle eastern tracks. Her one try was a disaster, but it was at Keeneland, which always carries the automatic excuse that did not excuse the Oaks favorite from defeat. So that is a question mark, but I think it’s well worth the shot to single her here.

I really like English Channel (Smart Strike) in the 9th, the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, another Grade 1, this one at nine furlongs on the grass. He came on steadily as last year went on for Pletcher and then lost that tight decision to Shakespeare before failing in the Breeders Cup and going to the sidelines. In true Pletcher style, he returned to the races with a stakes win in March. The second and third finishers in that race, Silver Tree and Miesque's Approval, both went on to win stakes races, a Grade 2 in the case of the latter. English Channel was fully extended to win, so Pletcher has given him nearly two months off to recuperate. He moves outside to the nine post, but there’s no speed inside of him, and he should have no problem clearing the field well before the end of the long run to the first turn.

In fact, that could be a problem. He seems to run better with a target to run at, and I don’t think he’ll have one here. So this race is not a single, but I’m trying to limit it to three. I gotta use Gorella (Grape Tree Road), the tough four-year old filly taking on the boys. Her winning return to the races at Keeneland last month was very similar to her race there last fall that preceded her monster effort in the Breeders Cup Mile. And I’ll use Cacique (Danehill), ridiculously wide when rallying to miss by a neck in the Grade 1 Kilroe at Santa Anita.

I’d like to not use Milk It Mick, who actually won the Kilroe with a better trip, but disappointed as the 6-5 favorite in his last. I’m wavering on him, but I won’t use Silver Tree. Nice horse, but I think he’s a shade below the top three. He faced nothing like these horses in the turf stakes he won at Tampa last month.

And then the Derby. I’ll breathe a big sigh of relief if I get there alive and have the Jazil and Sinister Minister scenarios accounted for, as well as a shot for what should be a decent price with Bob and John and a couple of others. Whichever ones I’m fancying at the time.

- Feel free to email me with comments, questions, links, or whatever.

4 Comments:

Anonymous said...

I think Gorella will run those boys off their feet!

Anonymous said...

...i'll throw you guys a bomb in Race 8 @ Churchill, for purposes of the Pick 3 and Pick 4...i agree with Alan that Behaving Badly is double-tough, but i bet her in that Keeneland race and watched in horror as she never ran a step...it's possible she's another Balance-type who can't run outside California...if she runs her race, she wins, but i think she might be vulnerable here...keep your eye on Nossa Cancao, 20/1 on the morning line...this horse has shown a powerful late kick on occasion, and 7 furlongs appears to be the right distance for her...she's a horse who i've backed a couple of times (at big odds), based on some some very good workout reports from my clocker...and she didn't run poorly either, it's just that she was up against some very nice horses, and you know how tough it is to run down quality speed in California...this is her first US race outside of California, and there's every chance she'll appreciate a little bit deeper surface...i think it's notable that she worked a bullet 46.1 (best of 35 horses), apparently she continues to train well...in fact, she's gotta be training VERY well, because whta the hell is A.C. Avila doing shipping her out here for this race???...and Vergara came out for the ride as well???...this is a horse who's been well-beaten in her last 4 races...i dunno, i just think she's gotta be extremely well-meant just to show up up here, especially with the rider in tow...it's not like Avila has a horse in the Derby, and brought this one along for the ride...she's here to win, or at least run well...if Behaving Badly doesn't bring her A-game, and Nossa Cancao does, i honestly believe she can pull it off...believe me, this horse has a very powerful late kick, it's just kinda hard to see on paper...at 20/1, she's a good gamble, and she's the kind of horse who could really send those Pick 3 and Pick 4 payoffs into the stratosphere, no matter WHO wins the Derby...

Alan Mann said...

I'm not happy about that race; I even ended up using Splendid Blendid a bit, but I just didn't like Pussycat Doll. Would have had some decent Pick 3's going into the Derby.

Hey Walter, did you see George Washington this morning? He just exploded out of the pack.

Anonymous said...

...damn, another non-threatening finish for Nossa Cancao...when will i ever learn?... 8^P

...and no, i DIDN'T see the 2000 Guineas...did they show a replay on ESPN or something???...i sure would like to have seen it...maybe they'll show it on Wire 2 Wire this week...as for George Washington, yeah, he was reputed to be a very good one...but there had been some nay-sayers out there who didn't like the way he was training (sound familiar?)...in fact, one of the Euro-books had on prop on whether he would EVER win another race!...pretty ballsy, considering this was the first race of his 3yo season, and he's one of the bigger names around...must've been some questions about his soundness, but i guess he answered some questions today...