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Monday, May 22, 2006

"Coin Toss"

- Dr. Dean Richardson and Michael Matz were smiling and joking at last evening’s press conference, but Dr. Richardson warned that Barbaro’s survival was still a “coin toss, even after everything went well." [Daily Racing Form]

David Zipf, Maryland’s chief vet, confirmed that he inspected Barbaro after he broke through the starting gate, and that the colt seemed fine both then and during the warmups.

"If there are any problems during warm-ups, I'll ask the jockey to bring the horse to me and will tell him exactly what to do with him, depending on the problem I may see....In the case of the Preakness, being at the gate I saw each horse warm up, and there were no problems. Barbaro looked fine. He was very aggressive, lunging against the pony, and striding out well." [Bloodhorse]

- NYRA’s Bill Nader says that he’s still hoping for a crowd around 60,000 for the Belmont. Considering that 62,274 showed up last year to see Afleet Alex in perfect weather, that may be wishful thinking. Perhaps NYRA may want to reconsider that ban on bringing beer into the park.

- The UK’s Independent Online reports (in its very British way) that Discreet Cat will be resuming in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont on 4 July.

- Maybe in a way it’s good news that the preliminary ratings for the Preakness show a 3.4% decline from last year. That way, perhaps less of the new fans that the sport is always hoping to attract saw what happened to Barbaro. Nonetheless, it can't be good that ratings have declined for the last five Triple Crown races, and it's almost a lock that the Belmont will make it six.

9 Comments:

thecalicocat said...

Probably sounds wimpish, but I have lost my taste for horse racing -- at least for now.
I just have too many vivid pictures in my head of Ruffian, Go for Wand and now Barbaro.
I even go so far back to remember Hoist the Flag, who, if I remember correctly, was closely associated with a young Patrice Jacobs. It broke her heart when Hoist the Flag broke down.
I really don't feel like doing anything today and I felt the same way yesterday.
I know I'll get over it, but it will take a while.

Anonymous said...

Glad to see that someone remembered Hoist the Flag. One of my all time favorites, he was a horse who had so much potential and high expectations. He broke his leg in work outs after winning the Bayshore (7F)in 1:21 flat. Never beaten across the wire winning 4 races as a two year old, he was DQ'd in one. He was some horse and the first horse to have plates put in his leg to try and save him. As a sire he covered good broodmares very well, but not so well with mares of lesser race talent or pedigree. Nick

Greg said...

Over the past several years, we usually don't see the Derby winner after the triple crown races (or shortly thereafter) because the owners can't risk losing the $$ he will make as a stallion. I wonder if the ramifications of this past weekend with Barbaro mean that we may not see Derby winners ever race again. Period.

Walter said...

...great point about Derby winners not continuing onward...that situation was bad enough already, without this making it worse...i think it's a given that (assuming health) all Derby winners will try the Preakness, and many will try the Belmont...but after that, all bets are off...when's the last time a non-gelded Derby winner ran as a 4yo?...hell, when's the last time a Derby winner made it to the Breeders Cup?...

...on another subject, here's something i found downright laughable...i went down to Wynn last night to check on Bernardini's Breeder's Cup Classic price (he's 25/1, btw)...they have Invasor listed @ 20/1 off his win in the Pimlico Special...meanwhile, Discreet Cat (who destroyed Invasor in the UAE Derby) is listed @ 60/1...it's not the 60/1 that's laughable, just the fact that he's listed 3 times higher than Invasor...should be the other way around...and while we're on the subject, other notables include Surf Cat (15/1), Lava Man (15/1), Buzzard's Bay (30/1), Electrocutionist (15/1)...i don't like the prices, but at least these are horses you can make a case for...meanwhile, check out these numbers on horses who haven't even started this year...Bellamy Road (20/1), Commentator (20/1), Flower Alley (7/1), Declan's Moon (22/1)...

alan said...

Hey Walter - That's a misprint on Flower Alley; he can't be 7-1, right?

Once a horse wins the Derby, and say he (or she) wins, or even just runs well in at least one of the other two legs, it's almost like the horse's breeding value can almost only go down afterwards. Of course, if he went on to win the Classic, that would be different, but we just don't see that anymore.

Case said...

Watchmaker has Flower Alley as the top rated older horse. The books may have him at 7-1. I wouldn't bet him at that price.

I was at Pimlico on Sat and it was a great day up to the big race. Better Talk Now and Ramon had a exciting win at great odds for a BC Turf champ. Then the injury to Barbaro. Very sad.

Walter said...

...i'm afraid it's not a misprint...Flower Alley opened as the 7/1 favorite several months ago, and his price hasn't been raised, despite the fact the year's half-over and he still hasn't run yet...same deal with Commentator and Bellamy Road...Declan's Moon has even DROPPED from 25 to 22...simply unbelieveable...but hey, that's Vegas for you...they never raise prices on horse futures, only lower them...

...ps...another price that had me shaking my head was Don't Get Mad @ 20/1...good grief... 8^P

alan said...

Does that mean that people are actually betting him at 7-1? We're talking five months here. Considering everything that can change between now and then, do you think that 7-1 is a fair price on him being in the race?

Walter said...

...i'm sure nobody is betting him...in fact, they're probably not betting on anybody...Breeders Cup futures aren't nearly as popular as Derby futures, for whatever reason, especially while Derby futures are available...now that the Triple Crown is two-thirds completed, the BC wagering will likely pick up a little, but it still won't attract much interest until the races very close...and NO, i wouldn't bet Flower Alley to make the starting gate @ 7/1...he hasn't started all year, and the race is still 5 months away...i'm not sure i'd take 20/1 on him making the race...and i wouldn't take anything lower than triple digits on him winning the race...i don't even rank him as a contender right now...