Second Thoughts, Part 1

- It doesn’t take much to get me wavering on picks. It took me about six hours to have second thoughts. I’m not that secure of a person when it comes to handicapping, and can be easily persuaded, like a GOP incumbent hearing Karl Rove whispering sweet nothings. Walter makes a good case for Cause to Believe, and Dr. Fager thinks the Wood was a bad race, and I’m ready to put a big -------------------------------- mark through the whole thing.

In any event, I have to actually agree that at 50-1, yes, absolutely, Cause To Believe is the best value in the race. Those odds are surprsing; is that to mean that he’s no better than Seaside Retreat, Flashy Bull, and Storm Treasure? (Deputy Glitters may also be a bit high at 50-1; one could make the case that his two races run around two turns on dry tracks make him a contender.) I really don't think he'll go off anywhere near there. His pp lines sure are impressive looking if you disregard his last on the grounds that the pace scenario was against him. I mean, he had closed off a 1:09 six furlongs in his prior race, and the Illinois Derby went in 1:13! His figs also show a nice pattern of improvement up to that race. Still question who he's beaten, and one could argue that, between the Illinois Derby and that workout, he could be tailing off after what's been a long campaign. But I'm taking another look.

Caught up on yesterday’s The Works and saw the suspect gallops by Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined. SNS didn’t look good at all, and the boys were all disappointed. Point Determined didn’t look great either, but they weren’t concerned about him, attributing it to his reputed laziness. Bob and John looked fantastic, with Garrett Gomez virtually motionless aboard. Even Frank Lyons, who earlier in the week said he liked Point Determined, now said that he had to rate this one as best of Baffert’s trio.

I’ll just have to agree to disagree with those who are downgrading Bob and John because of his finish in the Wood; though I certainly appreciate the opinions of those who would oppose horses coming out of a race with closing fractions like that. I guess that’s what makes our sport what it is. Some can look at that race and see a bunch of horses falling flat on their faces. I look at and see a horse responding to new and difficult circumstances, showing great competitive spirit tracking and wearing down a talented and stubborn foe (I also probably think higher of Keyed Entry than many others....but more on him in a second), getting tired but gaining conditioning and experience. Also note that he practically pulled himself up towards the finish, which wouldn't be a good thing to do on Saturday if he's lucky enough to be in that same position. I think he’s a horse coming up to the best race of his life. Whether that’s good enough to win, we’ll see.

As for Keyed Entry, watching him on the track today and when he worked out last Saturday, he does not look like the horse that we saw sit off a slow pace in the Gotham. It’s just hard for me to imagine that Pletcher would instruct Valenzuela to engage the two speed maniacs, the trainers of each having sworn to run the other into the ground. I can't imagine he thinks he could outrun them, and you'd think he'd want him to run like he did in the Gotham, at least early on. But then, why did he engage Valenzuela? May have to take a second look here too.