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Monday, May 08, 2006

Notes - May 8

- I was right about a few things on Saturday. English Channel. Brother Derek not being favored. I almost was right about Barbaro being the favorite….only that late surge of money on Sweetnorthernsaint prevented him from becoming the third favorite in the last seven years to win.

Another thing I was right about, unfortunately, was that the ratings would suck.

The National Broadcast Co.'s May 6 telecast of the Kentucky Derby (G1) registered a preliminary overnight rating of 7.4—the lowest since NBC began broadcasting the Derby in 2001.

The rating marks a 9.8% decrease from last year when the 131st edition of the race earned an 8.2 overnight rating. NBC officials were quick to point out, however, that this year's rating is still higher than the overnight ratings the American Broadcast Co. earned from 1998-'00.

The telecast peaked between 5:45 and 6:45 p.m. EDT with an 8.9 rating and a 20 share. The rating figure was down 11% while the share dropped three points. [Thoroughbred Times]
Hopefully, all the Triple Crown talk about Barbaro, as well has his spectacular win, will pick things up for the Preakness. But one thing I’d like to know is this: What would have happened if the hockey game preceding the telecast had gone into triple overtime? Would they have switched to the Derby between periods for updates?

- Last year at this time, we were hearing some of the stories about people who hit the Derby big time. No such payoffs this year, but still, the exacta with Bluegrass Cat returned $587, and my mole in Philly reports that the 8-13 combo was extremely popular at Delaware Park, where Barbaro debuted and the runner-up’s rider Ramon Dominguez rides regularly.

Another big winner, though I imagine he didn’t really want it this way, was Ron Bamberger, the executor of the will of Lawyer Ron’s late owner James T. Hines. The majority share of the horse that he sold just before Derby Day is certainly worth less today than it was then.
Bamberger, saying it was his duty to maximize the value of the estate, sold a chunk of the horse and his breeding rights to Audrey Haisfield of Stonewall Farm for a seven-figure sum two days before the race. He wouldn't get as much today.

"It was a pretty opportune time," trainer Bob Holthus said. "I think everybody got a good deal. Just because he lost one race is not the end of the world." [LA Times]
Reminds me of last year when the owners of Closing Argument sold the horse before the Preakness. He never ran again.

- Dick Jerardi on some pertinent numbers:
After attending that pace and running his first four fractions in :23.2, :23.7, :24.6 and :25.5, Barbaro cruised to a 3-length lead at the quarter pole. All Prado could see was an empty stretch, a shimmering finish line 440 yards away and, out of the corner of his eye, some of the 157,536 at the Downs, the second largest Derby crowd.

Without ever cocking his whip, Prado finally told Barbaro it was time to run. And the colt tore down the stretch like some of the great Derby winners in history, running that final quarter mile in :24.34 seconds, finishing the mile and a quarter in 2:01.36, earning a sensational Beyer speed figure of 111 and stamping himself as a serious threat to end the Triple Crown drought that goes back to Affirmed in 1978. [Philly Daily News]
Walter doesn’t even believe that those last two quarters – 25.5 and 24.34 – are accurate. “..Not even Secretariat can speed up during the final quarter of a 10-furlong race, let alone shave more than a second off the previous quarter.” But I’ll have to go along with the official time unless someone whips out a stopwatch and proves it wrong.

- I got to see the 2000 Guineas on TVG Saturday morning, and George Washington (Danehill) exploded out of the pack much in the way that Barbaro did. I’ve already fantasized about the two of them meeting on Breeders’ Cup day. Except which race would that be? The Classic or The Turf? Well, there’s a long way to go for that, and I’ve already read trainer Aidan O’Brien question whether George Washington can go as far as a mile and a half. In any event, the British Horseracing Board handicapper (referred to as “the official assessor” …you just gotta love those Brits) says: "George Washington appears to have run to a mark of at least 121, which is the highest I've got recorded in the race since King's Best ran to 124 in 2000." [Sporting Life] That of course is Timeform numbers, generally considered to be 12-14 points higher than a comparable Beyer fig.

I’ve also read some rumblings that Barbaro’s owners would love to see him run in the Epsom Derby, which is June 3. I don’t think anyone believes they would pass up a shot at the Triple Crown at this point. Matz told the Newark Star-Ledger that Barbaro would be a worthy Triple Crown winner, and not just because of his racing talent. “He has a nice personality. He's not a mean horse. He's got a lot of class.” OK, but is he a Democrat?

4 Comments:

Anonymous said...

...if Barbaro's owners have mentioned Europe, then it's possible they're considering the Arc...i don't see any way they pass on the Triple Crown shot, but the Arc would be a possibility, especially if he runs in the Arlington Million and performs well...but that's getting WAY ahead of ourselves...there's already talk that Deep Impact is pointing at the Arc, and Hurricane Run is scheduled for it as well...Barbaro could win out from here to the Arc, and he's still might be no better than 3rd choice with those two turf monsters in the race...

...btw, i ran across some Preakness stuff today...here ya go...

Will Barbaro win the Triple Crown?

Yes +260
No -320

Preakness Odds

Barbaro -130, 6/5
Brother Derek 4/1, 5/1
Sweetnorthernsaint 8/1, 9/1
Lawyer Ron 8/1, 10/1
Like Now 10/1, 16/1
Bernardini 15/1, 6/1
Simon Pure 20/1, 20/1
Jazil 20/1, 20/1
Point Determined 20/1, 20/1
Sinister Minister 25/1, 25/1
Bob and John 25/1, 28/1
Cause to Believe 30/1, 35/1
Deputy Glitters 30/1, 35/1
All Others n/a, 2/1

Alan Mann said...

I think Hollendorfer made it pretty clear that CTB ain't going to the Preakness. Is that a typo, or is someone giving 6-1 on Bernardini?

Alan Mann said...

2.60 to 1 seems too cheap on Barbaro winning the Crown....but would you lay over 3-1 on him NOT doing it? Don't think I would.

Anonymous said...

...it's not a typo on Bernardini...i guess the guy that does the odds over there is a Bernardini fan...it's possible they took a bet on him, but unlikely...

...as for the Barbaro prop, i looked at the sheet and it said "Will Barbaro yada yada yada?", with the Yes listed @ +260...i immediately thought, "Wow, that's a good price on him winning the Preakness. I may have to bet that"...then i look again, and notice the sheet says "Triple Crown"...good grief...you're right though Alan, i wouldn't lay that type of wood against him doing it...btw, here are the Triple Crown odds on the horses BEFORE the Derby...i had neglected to post those last week...

Triple Crown odds (pre-Derby)

Brother Derek 20/1
Lawyer Ron 12/1
Barbaro 15/1
Bob and John 40/1
Sweetnorthernsaint 25/1
Point Determined 50/1
Sinister Minister 75/1
Steppenwolfer 100/1
Bluegrass Cat 150/1
A.P. Warrior 100/1
Jazil 100/1
Cause to Believe 150/1
Sharp Humopr 125/1
Private Vow 150/1
Flashy Bull 200/1
Showing Up 150/1
Keyed Entry 200/1
Deputy Glitters 400/1
Seaside Retreat 350/1
Storm Treasure 500/1