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Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Is (Almost) Everybody Happy?

- It doesn’t seem like anyone should be too upset about their post position, except perhaps for Dan Hendricks. While he tried to put the best face on it - "We want to be out where it's a little clearer.....We would have to send him a little from the inside" – I’m sure he didn’t want to be that far out. He’s certainly isn’t going to win in the manner of Gato del Sol, the last horse to win from that post [a fact that means nothing without examining the occupants of the #18 stall since then]; the 1982 Derby winner came from dead last. (Looking back at that field, you could certainly say that was a pretty forgettable crop.] Brother Derek will have to be maneuvered to not lose too much ground on the first turn.

Jazil and Steppenwolfer, who drew the sometimes-dreaded inside posts, aren’t going anywhere anyway, so they might as well save some ground. They’re going to need a big rally and a solemn prayer to get through the traffic no matter where they’re coming from. Keyed Entry could be able to sit in the garden spot behind Sinister Minister and Sharp Humor, both positioned nicely towards the inside. I’m not counting Keyed Entry out as far as the minor awards go. Point Determined, Bob and John, AP Warrior, Sweetnorthernsaint, Barbaro....most of the other horses I still care about, drew between 5 and 11. Lawyer Ron should be more comfortable on the outside at 17, not bogged down between horses. As Holthus said, "There is a lot speed to the inside of us and if we can follow somebody we will be in good shape." [Bloodhorse] And Cause to Believe doesn’t want to be as far back as the two inside horses, so he should be OK from the outside too. So, is everybody (other than Brother Derek) happy?

2 Comments:

Walter said...

...i think Keyed Entry was hurt most by the draw...the last place i'd want to be if i were Keyed Entry is drawn directly inside Sinister Minister (down towards the rail, no less)...in my view he either gets sent hard, or he runs the risk of getting swallowed up inside...it's possible he could let SM go and come up on his outside, but Sharp Humor will likely get to that spot first...and i doubt there'll be a big enough gap between SM/SH and the rest of the pack for KE to make a clear third...i think he has to go early, which should only contribute to a hot pace...as for Brother Derek, while he's drawn way outside, i don't think it's bad spot for him at all...the key is where the speed is, and looking inward from Post 18, the next forwardly-placed runner appears to be Sweetnorthernsaint in Post 11 (i doubt Lawyer Ron in Post 17 will stay within a length of BD early...with the other speed inside SNS being SH/SM/KE, i don't see Brother Derelk worse than 5th early, and it's a very long run into the first turn...i think he'll sit a very nice trip from Post 18, particularly if SM/SH/KE are winging early and BD can drop behind them and get closer to the rail, either in front of SNS or lapped right on his outside...it looks like Lawyer Ron will end up outside SNS/BD when they hit the turn...i'm working from the assumption that Barbaro will take back some early...Cause to Believe looks okay in #16, as Seasside Reteat will likely break inward from the first stall of the Aux Gat, and will be taking back anyway...that should give CTB some room to manuever early, particularly after BD and LR clear him from the outside...i think CTB figures for mid-pack trip on the ouside of the pack...he'll likely be a little wide, but he should be in the clear, and do okay for himself...btw, how about that 50/1 morning line???...as Kramer would say, "That's some sweet action!"... 8^)

alan said...

With the two closers inside of him, I'm figuring that Keyed Entry should have a comfortable space inside of him with no threat from the inside to worry about. He can just drift over to the rail, stay behind the two speed maniaics, and save a lot of ground while the pressers (or speed horses not as fast as Sin Min) all jockey for position on the outside, with all the bumping and checking that goes with it. I thought that he showed in the Gotham that he can be rated, and finish too. I think that if you want to, you could postulate that the track was just really tiring in the Wood. It was the only two-turn race of the day, and Beyer more or less conceded on his chat that it was more or less a guess. I still like him and I'm going to include him for a minor share...but if he's really 30-1, I'll also have a couple of bucks on the nose.