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Friday, October 26, 2007

Dregs Mile

- The Dirt Mile lived down to its reputation as a consolation race for second stringers, when Corinthian romped in a race that fell apart. Discreet Cat never threatened once again, in another rather disinterested performance. I wonder if he'll ever race again.

More on all this later, or at some point. Gotta go and pick up the Head Chef. The seats I scored for tomorrow are on the apron, so I'm gonna try and sneak her into Section 8 up here for the press. It was pretty empty today. Again, I'll be live blogging on the BC site tomorrow. Don't know how many people will be reading blogs tomorrow, and again, if it were up to me....

The Head Chef awaits, so I'm outta here. Speak to you later.


ljk said...

The forecast and radar look horrible. It seriously looks like the real heavy rain is just approaching. Any chance the tracks could be judged unsafe? Highly doubtfull I know. Is off the turf conceivable?

Sunday's forecast looks excellent...

Anonymous said...

Juvenile Fillies: My opinion of Smarty Deb skyrocketed yesterday with the victory of stablemate Margo’s Gift in the 7th yesterday. I had tossed her up to that point. Now I’ll have to include her in an exotic mishmash with Indian Blessing, Izarra, Grace Anatomy and, to a lesser extent Irish Smoke and Tasha’s Miracle. Depending on the odds, I’ll probably key my play around Grace Anatomy and Smarty Deb, requiring at least one of them to run 1 or 2.

Juvenile: A second (or third or fourth, who’s counting?) viewing of the Norfolk put me onto Salute the Sarge, who should be a groovy price from way outside. He was parked wide on the first turn, wide on the second, and continued a sustained run to just get beat by a really good horse in Dixie Chatter. He also had a bad trip in the Del Mar Futurity, so he’s two bad trips from being undefeated. At 10-1 or so, he’s my choice. Tale of Ekati makes a lot of sense, and I suppose you have to use the top three out of the Champagne in exotics.

Filly & Mare Turf: On the soft turf, I love three horses (in this order)—Honey Ryder, Passage of Time, Argentina. I’ll probably try to do something with exactas here, then add Arravale, who I consider the most poorly managed horse of 2007, as my bomb in the 3rd and 4th hole (Danzon will get a little piece of action, too). I’ve got nothing against Nashoba’s Key, but I’ll stand against her on the soft going three turns at a short price.

Sprint: Smokey Stover makes a ton of sense here, and is probably worth a win bet at 6-1 or so. With the scratch of Attila’s Storm and the sloppy going, Commentator is mildly interesting. And why does Forefathers remind me of Grand Slam in 1998? I’ll include him on the underside of Smokey Stover keyed exatas, along with Benny the Bull, Midnight Lute & Kelly’s Landing.

Mile: They’re giving away free money in this race, because people will be betting on After Market, who has no shot on the soft turf and Excellent Art, who is the European version of Dollar Bill. Unfortunately, I can’t figure out how to capitalize. Could Remarkable News and Cosmonaut run around there 1-2, with Purim getting up late to close out the tri? Well, now that I’ve written that, I should at least punch out a $2 ticket on the combo, right?

Distaff: I know everybody thinks this is the deepest race out there, but I’ve pretty much decided to single Unbridled Belle (Full disclosure…I’ve got a little insurance in the form of a Vegas future ticket on Hystericalady, but she is facing a different pace scenario than I expected and a tough task from the 12 hole). As for Unbridled Belle, let’s follow her year here: We open up with a fine second after breaking from the 11 in a minor Delaware stake, which was clearly a prep for the Delaware Handicap. We win that race by 7, earning the top fig outside of my insurance policy. Then, we go to Saratoga, press a quick pace, and get beat by the Giant Killer. Not the first time that’s ever happened to a good horse, right? Then we come back in the Beldame, encounter trouble and a slow pace, get out for the stretch run and run down Indian Vale, who seemed to have everything in her favor that day. I suppose a bounce is possible, but I think we’re just getting real good right now, and that sentiment is confirmed by Mike Welsch who wrote of her workout: “Galloped out like a machine after her five furlong drill…couldn’t be doing any better…”

Turf: Everybody loves Dylan Thomas. But if the turf is a bog, I’ll take Better Talk Now, who I placed a relatively (for me) large win bet on in his turf debut at 9-5, which he won by 9 in June of 2002! That’s a long time ago. This race should have a reasonable pace, but to me, it’s more about the conditions…this guy loves it soft. Sure, he’s been laid off a while, but that’s never stopped him from running big. I think I bet against him in his seasonal debuts in 2003, 2004, 2005 & 2006. He beat me three out of four times! I give him a great shot to upset the 3-5 Dylan Thomas. But I’ll have both on my multi-race tickets.

Classic: Who knows? This is, to me, not a great Classic, but a tightly matched one. Street Sense has to be my pick, I suppose, but why does Any Given Saturday keep pulling me in his direction? I had him in the Derby, so it’d be nice to get some of that money back on him. I’m going to figure Lawyer Ron for a Saratoga freak and a casualty of pace. Hard Spun goes down with him. And Curlin’s win in the Jockey Club seemed like a bit of a grinder performance. He got beat at Monmouth before, and I suppose if he wins, I lose.

So there it is, my Breeders’ Cup analysis. I’m fairly passionate about a Salute the Sarge-Tale of Ekati exacta in the Juvenile, a three horse exacta box in the F&M Turf, and Unbridled Belle in the Distaff. Enjoy yourselves, everybody, and thank you, Alan for all your hard work.

Anonymous said...

I went to Monmouth on Friday and besides the weather, had a great time. However, half of the automated tote machines were out of order. If your going for the big day, be advised. Good luck!

Brett said...

I think your smart pick for the Derby, Alan, is going to get me here in the Classic tomorrow. Any Given Saturday will win, I hope at least.

Price plays for the day: Idiot Proof, Precious Kitten, and Balance.

And if you look at George Washington's race last year in the classic it wasn't bad considering the competition. Softer competition this year, equals a chance to be in the money.

Anonymous said...

I don't think the Mud Mile+70 can be judged a flop, necessarily. There are too many premature retirements going on, and this time not enough were looking to go an awkward distance around two turns. On the occasions the race is an accurately-distanced one-turn mile, I bet you'll see the fields bloom with contenders. This year, it was savaged by a dearth of candidates left standing; if a Political Force isn't retired, maybe his Classic presence scares sense enough into Larry Jones to put Hard Spun into the Mud Mile+70 where he belongs. It's just that there were too many horses retiring, for cause or not, rather than racing. I'm just surprised more people found the Fayette or being an MTO in a turf-scheduled race more appealing than the BC, given what they had to work with in the first place putting a field together.