RSS Feed for this Blog

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Odds and Ends

- Unbridled Belle is another horse I like who fared poorly in the draw with number 11. I think she may be taken out of her game with so much speed, both front-running and tactical, inside of her. From that post, I think Dominguez will have to lay back further than in the past, or risk getting hung wide into the turn. But I also think she still may be good enough now to win, though her 9-2 morning line seems like borderline value at best.

Excellent Art drew the 13 in the Mile and was tabbed at the 3-1 favorite. That post just about ensures that he's going to have to close from 14th place. Remarkable News drew the 14, but I could see him clearing the field by the turn. The presence of Kip Deville and Cosmonaut should however ensure a fair pace. I like the six post draw by Trippi's Storm, and think I'd be all over him at 8-1. After Market and Jeremy also drew well and have strong closing kicks. Nobiz Like Shobiz is an intriguing prospect, but I'm not sure that the turnback to a mile suits him.

I think that Shore Do (five post) is the biggest morning line overlay of the day at 30-1 in the Juvenile.

The F&M Turf starts right before the grandstand turn, so that can't be good for the horses drawn outside. The good news, at least from a sporting aspect, is that the four top contenders all drew inside, promising what should be a fair and spirited contest. 3-1 seems like a fair price to me for Nashoba's Key.

I think that out of every horse in the Classic, the only one that I would be shocked, or shocked, as Mad Dog would say, if he wins is Diamond Stripes. Not that there's anything wrong with a four-year old son of Notebook who's never been out of the money in eight starts. But he seemed as if he's just a cut below Grade 1 when he ran third in three of them over the summer. I didn't think his Meadowlands Cup was a step forward, and wonder if the distance will be to his liking. Awesome Gem was made 30-1, which seems high for a horse who finished a bare nose behind Tiago....

....who I think you gotta consider at his 12-1 morning line. It's a long run to the first turn, so I don't think that the nine post will be too bad. I'm a little surprised that Brad Thomas made Lawyer Ron the morning line favorite. My opinion is that it will be Curlin.


El Angelo said...

I'm also shocked LR is the morning line favorite; I have to think either Curlin or Street Sense would get it, especially with the masses pounding familiar names from the Triple Crown.

Anonymous said...

I want to play Tiago, I really do. He has two grade one wins, more than most of the other more highly regarded big names.

If this race was just about anywhere but MTH I would, but just can not see him getting there on this track, even if the race falls apart which I highly doubt.

Exotics yes, win no.