- Check out the fractions of Street Sense's five furlong workout in 1:01 1/5 this morning:
Clockers caught Jim Tafel’s son of Street Cry in :26, :38, :50 2/5 and galloping out six furlongs in 1:12 2/5. [Bloodhorse]That means he got the fifth furlong in :10 4/5!
4 Comments:
What a work! It's hard to knock a horse training that well...galloping out in 11 and 1?? Unbelievable, even for Street Sense who tends to be as impressive in the mornings as he is in the afternoons.
I love Curlin, and have since February when he was just a dazzling maiden winner; but I'm worried about his ability to handle the monmouth oval, and he is a true "bandwagon horse." Did you see how much he was bet down in the Gold Cup against the consensus top older horse? Granted, he did win the race, but that fact will just lower his price on Cup day. I think I'll try to beat him in the win spot.
I've learned my lesson...never doubt Street Sense when he shows an affinity for the track, especially after a polytrack loss. This whole situation reminds me too much of the derby. I'm afraid that he'll win by a few. But I'll be much less afraid if I'm looking at a decent price on Saturday.
It seems like pretty much everyone has Discreet Cat as a 'bet against' in the Dirt Mile, and I've got to disagree. He's listed at 2-1 on the morning line odds. If there weren't questions about his fitness, I think that would be 1-2 or lower...so I think the morning line odds imply that people believe there's less than a 50/50 chance (2-1 is 33%, 1-2 is 66%) that he's fit right now. Based on his workout yesterday, I think that's probably a gross underestimate. - Alex
Ok, here's part two of my Discreet Cat rant. This one isn't directly related to the Breeder's Cup, but to his ability (or lack thereof) to handle a route. If I have one criticism of your blogging (and your handicapping) it's that you tend to draw conclusions based on insufficient sample size. "Pletcher is struggling lately...he's 1 for his last 8 off layoff" (that's not an actual quote, but its the type of thing I'm talking about). Well, in Discreet Cat's case it appears that people have come to the conclusion that he can't handle distance based on a sample size of ZERO. He clearly wasn't himself in the World Cup or he would have at least shown some early speed. Fitness is always a concern with him, but that race has to be thrown out when evaluating his stamina. He next longest race was the 1 1/8 mile UAE Derby where he was brilliant winning from off the pace. Next longest races were at a mile, where he was brilliant and drawing away from the field in the stretch. Where is the evidence that he doesn't have stamina? I think we simply don't know yet...and I hope Godolphin keeps him running for another shot at the World Cup next year...which would surely at least double his breeding value. -Alex
Alex - Thanks for the rant. Hmmm, I dunno, I think I'm cognizant of sample sizes with trainer stats. I'll mention small samples when it's a guy I think might be getting hot. You're probably right with respect to past performances, but sometimes you have to guess and take a stand based on incomplete information.
I don't disagree with you at all regarding Discreet Cat being able to get a mile and a quarter or not, and I think you're right about him going to the World Cup should things go well. I don't like him at 2-1 on Friday though. That was a pretty amazing work though.
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